A Dual-age Structured Epidemiological Model with Waning Immunity and Reinfection
by R. M. Kovacevic, N. I. Stilianakis, V. M. Veliov
Read the paper
When is the right time for a booster? A new model that tracks two clocks at once. Many of the diseases we worry about most — COVID-19, influenza, RSV — share a common feature: immunity fades. After recovering or being vaccinated, our protection slowly erodes, increasing the likelihood of reinfection over time. Most mathematical models simplify this drastically, treating everyone who has recovered as identical and ignoring how recently, and how strongly, they were protected. Our study introduces a model that follows two personal "clocks" at once: how long it has been since someone last recovered (their immunity), and, if they are currently ill, how long the infection has been running.
Image Description: A Dual-age Structured Epidemiological Model with Waning Immunity and Reinfection.
