From Outbreak to Endemicity or Control: Tracking First Passage Time in Infectious Diseases
by Olusegun M. Otunuga
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Understanding when an outbreak will stabilize or resurge is central to infectious disease control. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to predict the timing of epidemic transitions. Rather than focusing only on whether a disease persists, we examine when transmission shifts from growth to endemic stability or control. The approach centers on the effective reproduction number, R(t), which indicates whether spread is expanding or declining. Because transmission changes with behavior, immunity, and policy responses, we incorporate uncertainty into our model. We evaluate when transmission first reaches critical thresholds, whether fixed or time-varying targets reflecting evolving public health conditions and adaptive interventions.
Tracking First Passage Time to Endemicity or Control in Infectious Diseases
