Who should be controlled? The Role of Asymptomatic Individuals, Isolation and Switching in the Dominant Transmission Route in Classical and Network Epidemic Models
by Adriana Acosta-Tovar and Fabio Lopes
Read the paper
Understanding how infectious diseases spread is key to designing effective control strategies. We developed mathematical models to study infections with both direct (person-to-person) and indirect (environmental) transmission, using classical and EBCM-based approaches. Incorporating population heterogeneity gave a more realistic view of dynamics. We found that dominant pathways can shift over time—direct contact early on, environmental exposure later—showing the risk of relying only on early data. Our analysis highlights asymptomatic spread and the effectiveness of isolating symptomatic cases. These insights, relevant to diseases like Mpox or cholera, provide stronger tools for timely public health interventions.
Who Should be Controlled? An early dominance of direct transmission may shift toward indirect transmission in heterogeneous networks. In such cases, effective control may require a combination of isolation and environmental measures. This switching phenomenon also occurs in the homogeneous model and in Poisson networks.
