Final size index-driven strategies for cost-effective epidemic management in metapopulation

by Uvencio José Giménez-Mujica; Jorge Velázquez-Castro; Andrés Anzo-Hernández, and Ignacio Barradas

Designing epidemic control strategies in metapopulations is essential for public health policies. In this article, we propose an efficient resource allocation methodology that considers the epidemic response and the cost of implementing a control strategy in given areas. Using a metapopulation SEIR model, we derive the final epidemic size in each area and propose an index to guide the control strategy. We compare the index with intuitive strategies: allocating all resources to the most affected area and distributing them equitably. We show that an allocation proportional to the index optimizes distribution, avoiding resource concentration in a few areas, keeping local peaks low, and ensuring a balanced epidemic impact across the network.

Right side. Epidemic peak reduction using the proposed index. Left side: Comparison of different control strategies using a network constructed with the ER algorithm.