Modeling the Impact of Seasonality on Mosquito Population Dynamics: Insights for Vector Control Strategies

by Joseph Baafi and Amy Hurford

Population models are tools for studying the dynamics of organisms and their interactions with the environment, but oversimplifying these models can lead to inaccurate predictions. Our research highlights this challenge by developing a model that incorporates seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns. We demonstrate how environmental factors significantly influence mosquito abundance. Neglecting these factors may lead to biased predictions, while our approach highlights regional differences in mosquito dynamics. For instance, the optimal timing, duration, and strategies for vector control may vary across regions due to differences in seasonal weather. We identified key parameters that drive model outcomes using sensitivity analysis.

Mathematical model illustrating regional variations in mosquito dynamics and peak abundance timing, emphasizing the importance of region-specific control strategies.